I present the result of an expert survey of political scientists, economists, historians, and area study experts at German Universities (n=210). The goal of the survey was to elicit a probability estimates of armed conflict risk between the Russian Federation and any member state of the European Union within the next five years. Data collection took place between 7 July and 10 September 2025 (i.e., before the Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace). The mean probability estimate of a fatal militarized interstate dispute is 36.37 per cent (median 30 per cent). The mean probability of war is 26.38 per cent (median 15 per cent). Political scientists report lower risks than members of other disciplines, as do professors relative to junior researchers. There are no meaningful differences between self-reported gender or preferred methodological approaches.